Diesel Prices Are Surging. Do You Know What Your Freight Is Really Costing You?

1. The Numbers: What Has Happened to Fuel Costs in 2026?

The first step in understanding the current freight environment is examining what has happened to diesel prices and fuel surcharges.

National Diesel Prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly national average diesel data shows the following progression:

Diesel increased approximately 12.3% over those two weeks.

For transportation providers operating on tight margins, higher diesel prices can increase the cost of moving freight.

For shippers, those increases may appear through fuel surcharge adjustments, carrier pricing, or transportation contract provisions.

However, the impact on any individual company depends on its specific freight contracts, shipping volume, mileage, and surcharge structure.

What the DAT Fuel Surcharge Chart Reveals

The supplied data illustrates a particularly volatile year.

During the first 11 weeks of 2026, the chart shows fuel surcharges generally ranging from approximately $0.37 to $0.44 per mile.

Then the market changed.

By week 16, the surcharge had reached approximately $0.73 per mile.

Around week 29, it had declined to approximately $0.56 per mile before climbing again.

The updated chart shows another sharp increase, reaching approximately $0.79 per mile.

For comparison, the 2024 and 2025 series shown in the supplied charts generally remained much closer to the $0.37–$0.48 per-mile range.

2. Why Are Diesel Prices Rising?

The current diesel environment is influenced by several interconnected factors, including geopolitical conflict, global oil supply, refining capacity, and transportation-market conditions.

Conflict in the Middle East

The U.S.-Iran conflict has created significant uncertainty surrounding energy production and transportation in the Middle East.

One particularly important area is the Strait of Hormuz, a major international shipping passage connecting Persian Gulf energy producers with global markets.

Disruption risks affecting the strait can influence oil availability, transportation costs, and market expectations.

When markets anticipate supply interruptions, energy prices can rise even before the full economic impact becomes clear.

Conversely, credible progress toward restoring shipping and energy production could ease some pressure.

The timing and extent of any price decline remain uncertain.

The Russia-Ukraine War

The continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict is another factor affecting global energy markets.

Attacks on energy infrastructure, sanctions, refinery disruptions, and changes in international petroleum trade can affect the availability of diesel and other refined products.

Refining Capacity and Diesel Availability

Diesel pricing is not determined by crude oil prices alone.

Refining capacity, inventories, seasonal demand, regional distribution, and the availability of finished diesel products also influence what carriers ultimately pay.

For CFOs and operations executives, these factors help explain why transportation expenses can change rapidly without corresponding changes in shipment volume.

3. Rising Fuel Costs Are Only Part of Your Freight Spend

Imagine a CPG manufacturer spending $10 million annually on freight transportation.

The company ships finished products from manufacturing facilities to distribution centers, retail customers, and regional warehouses.

Its finance department receives monthly transportation expenses, and management notices that freight spend has increased significantly.

The immediate explanation might be:

And that may be true.

But does it explain the entire increase?

What if transportation costs also increased because of:

• More frequent shipments with fewer pallets per load?
• Higher detention charges at certain distribution centers?
• Increased use of less-than-truckload transportation?
• Carrier invoice discrepancies?
• Underutilized trailer capacity?
• Inefficient routing or unnecessary shipment frequency?
• Changes in customer ordering patterns?

Without examining these variables, management may be attributing too much of the increase to fuel.

That creates a financial visibility problem.

Knowing Freight Spend vs. Understanding Freight Spend

Both executives understand that transportation expenses increased.

Only the second has a clear framework for deciding what to investigate next.

4. What Does a Fuel Surcharge Increase Actually Cost Your Business?

Fuel surcharge increases can be translated into straightforward financial calculations.

Consider a hypothetical company shipping 1,000 full truckloads annually, each traveling an average of 1,000 miles.

Now apply the fuel surcharge change illustrated in the supplied DAT chart.

This example does not represent a specific customer's actual freight expenses.

It illustrates why finance leaders should understand how fuel surcharge changes affect transportation budgets.

A $0.41-per-mile increase may appear relatively small when viewed individually.

Across a million annual miles, it becomes a substantial financial consideration.

5. The Controllable Freight Dollar: Where Companies Should Start Looking

Companies cannot independently determine global diesel prices.

They can, however, examine how efficiently they purchase, plan, and execute transportation.

This is where freight cost analysis becomes valuable.

The objective is not to assume every expense can be eliminated.

It is to identify which expenses are necessary, which are influenced by operational decisions, and which may deserve further investigation.

Opportunity 1: Maximize Every Trailer

One of the most important questions for CPG manufacturers is whether transportation capacity is being used effectively.

Consider a company shipping 26 pallets per truckload when its equipment, packaging configuration, product characteristics, and applicable weight limits could safely accommodate more.

That difference may create an opportunity to reduce the number of shipments required to move the same product volume.

Potential strategies include:

• Improved pallet configuration.
• Double stacking where product and packaging permit.
• Better weight distribution.
• Combining compatible shipments.
• Coordinating shipping schedules.
• Matching equipment to product density and dimensions.

For lightweight products, such as certain snack foods or seaweed products, trailer cube may be the primary constraint.

For heavier products, gross vehicle weight and axle limits may determine practical capacity.

There is no universal maximum pallet count.

Trailer dimensions, product characteristics, loading methods, equipment ratings, and legal weight limits must all be considered.

Opportunity 2: Choose the Appropriate Shipping Method

Another important area is transportation-mode selection.

Companies frequently choose between:

• Less-than-truckload (LTL).
• Shared truckload.
• Full truckload (FTL).

Each method has advantages depending on shipment volume, destination, delivery requirements, available capacity, and pricing.

A shipment that makes financial sense as LTL at one volume may become a candidate for shared truckload or FTL as volume changes.

Likewise, paying for a full truckload when a shipment could move more efficiently through another service may create unnecessary expense.

Freight intelligence helps identify these opportunities by comparing shipment characteristics with transportation costs and service requirements.

Opportunity 3: Investigate Accessorial Charges

Detention, redelivery, reclassification, liftgate service, and other accessorial charges can create additional transportation expense.

Some are legitimate and unavoidable.

Others may reflect recurring operational patterns worth reviewing.

For example, if a particular distribution center consistently generates detention charges, management may want to investigate appointment scheduling, loading procedures, or facility congestion.

The objective is not simply to identify how much was paid.

It is to understand why the charges occurred and whether the underlying causes can be addressed.

Opportunity 4: Review Carrier Contracts and Invoice Accuracy

Transportation contracts may include negotiated rates, fuel surcharge schedules, minimum charges, accessorial provisions, and other pricing conditions.

Comparing invoices against applicable contract terms can help identify discrepancies requiring review.

Carrier performance should also be evaluated beyond the lowest quoted rate.

Service reliability, claims, transit times, and additional charges can influence total transportation cost.

6. Why Freight Visibility Matters to the CFO, COO, and CEO

Different executives may examine the same transportation data through different financial and operational priorities.

These perspectives are connected.

Improved trailer utilization can reduce the number of shipments required.

Fewer shipments may lower transportation expense.

Lower expense per unit can support product-level profitability.

And better visibility helps finance explain the results.

7. How AI Can Help Companies Understand Their Freight Spend

Artificial intelligence creates additional opportunities to analyze transportation data at scale.

A company shipping thousands of loads annually may have shipment histories, carrier invoices, customer destinations, routing information, and accessorial charges spread across multiple systems.

Analyzing those records manually can require substantial time.

AI-assisted analysis can help organize information, identify patterns, compare scenarios, and surface potential anomalies for human review.

Potential Applications

• Freight Cost Analysis: Understanding changes in cost per shipment, pallet, case, or mile.
• Load Optimization: Identifying opportunities to improve trailer utilization and shipment consolidation.
• Carrier Analysis: Comparing rates, service performance, and relevant contract terms.
• Routing Analysis: Evaluating transportation patterns and alternative routing scenarios.
• Invoice Auditing: Flagging potential discrepancies for verification.
• Executive Reporting: Translating operational findings into clear financial summaries.

AI does not eliminate the need for experienced transportation professionals.

Its usefulness depends on the quality of the underlying data, appropriate analytical methods, and human validation.

8. Five Questions Every CFO Should Ask About Freight This Month

Before accepting higher freight costs as an unavoidable consequence of the fuel market, finance leaders can begin with five practical questions.

These questions do not require a company to immediately replace its carriers, purchase new software, or overhaul its transportation department.

They are starting points for understanding the financial picture.

If management cannot confidently answer them, that may indicate an opportunity to improve freight visibility.

And improved visibility is the foundation for more informed decisions.

9. The Bottom Line: You Cannot Control Fuel Prices, but You Can Better Understand Your Freight Costs

The 2026 diesel market demonstrates how quickly external events can affect transportation expenses.

A company that began the year budgeting around a fuel surcharge of approximately $0.38 per mile may now be dealing with a surcharge approaching $0.79 per mile under the benchmark illustrated in the supplied DAT data.

That is a substantial change.

But higher fuel prices should not automatically mean accepting every increase in transportation expense without further examination.

For companies spending $5 million, $10 million, or more annually on freight, even relatively small improvements in overall transportation efficiency can have meaningful financial implications.

These figures illustrate the financial value of percentage improvements; they are not projected or guaranteed savings.

The actual opportunity depends on the company's freight data, contracts, network, operational constraints, and existing efficiency.

The most important step is understanding the numbers before making decisions.

That means separating external market pressures from operational cost drivers, identifying areas worth investigating, and translating transportation information into financial intelligence.